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Kentucky Derby Post Analysis 2007
 

Doghouse Confidential Kentucky Derby 2007

Kentucky Derby 2007 Results Chart

Once again, the top three finishers all met our median energy distribution and last three furlongs criteria.  No horse that we excluded finished anywhere near the top.  We do have to note that we couldn't use the Keeneland Bluegrass race at 9 furlongs for Street Sense so we had to use his previous Tampa Bay race at 8.5 furlongs.  However, his last three furlong time and his very low energy distribution led me to believe that Street Sense would be able to negotiate the 10f Derby.

We now have eight straight years of the Derby winners meeting our criteria (could be more, but I haven't calculated the penultimate race for the Derby winners before 2000):
Yr Name Derby Winning Beyer Key Race
Final 3f time		 Key Race
%ME		 ESP
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus 108 37.0 67.60% SP
2001 Monarchos 116 37.3 67.79% SP
2002 War Emblem 114 36.7 66.75% S
2003 Funny Cide 109 37.5 67.82% SP
2004 Smarty Jones 107 37.8 67.69% SP
2005 Giacomo 100 37.6 67.55% S
2006 Barbaro 111 37.7 67.89% SP
2007 Street Sense(a) 110 36.2 66.03% S
(a) Key race was at 8.5f because could not use Keeneland Bluegrass at 9f (too slow early).

All of the horses that were included in my 2007 Derby wager met the criteria above except for Scat Daddy that I included for second because I thought there would be mud.  We eliminated many good horses that may have been good at 9f but weren't going to win at 10f.  Recall from the April 30 analysis, we eliminated the following from winning because they did not meet the criteria:

Nobiz Like Shobiz, Sam P., Scat Daddy, Chelokee (did not run), Stormello, and Teuflesburg 

We had five Tier I horses that we believed could run the 10 furlong Derby: Street Sense, Curlin, Cowtown Cat, Tiago, and Hard Spun.

Our key horse and the one to beat was Street Sense (won $11.80).  Look at the 110 Beyer, way above the field.  He ran a fabulous race and was much the best.  He could have won by much more, and there was almost six lengths between the second place finisher and third place.  Hard Spun ran a great race to finish second as I thought others would push him, and I didn't like the super fast work he had earlier in the week.  A very good and game horse.  His pace times were very fast and honest.  Curlin finished a fast closing third.  He just needs some experience, but he wasn't good enough to threaten the first two.

We won our Safe Bet by hitting the $101.80 exacta, investing $26.  With regard to my bet, I bet everything that I said I would totaling $230.  While Tiago did okay, he wasn't any ball of fire, so we didn't hit our big exacta bet. However, I did hit the exacta five times ($510) and the 5- horse $1 triple box for half of $440.  So I won $500 for the race. We did back the right horses using the method.  But anything can happen in a twenty-horse race.   Sometimes you get lucky.

Mr. X


Preakness