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Contenders as of April 24, 2008
Here is our third and final list of
primary Kentucky Derby win contenders based on 3f final time
and energy distribution. There was no consideration of final
time.
Tier I
| Name |
Last Race |
Dist |
3f Final Time (sec) |
Energy Distribution |
Adriano (p)
|
3/22/08 |
9f |
37.8 |
67.42% |
| Bob Black Jack (p)(x) |
4/5/08 |
9f |
36.6 |
66.96% |
Colonel John (p)
|
4/5/08
3/1/08 |
9f
9f |
35.5
36.0 |
66.01%
65.99% |
| Cowboy Cal (p)(x) |
4/12/08 |
9f |
36.7 |
66.83% |
| Monba (p) |
4/12/08 |
9f |
36.5 |
66.67% |
Recapturetheglory (p)
|
4/5/08 |
9f |
36.1 |
66.53% |
| Visionaire (p) (s) |
4/12/08 |
9f |
35.9 |
65.95% |
| Z Fortune |
4/12/08 |
9f |
37.8 |
67.64% |
Z Humor (p)
|
4/5/08 |
9f |
35.8 |
66.33% |
(p) Polytrack or artificial surface
(s) Won on sealed dirt track at 8.5f
(x) Unlikely starter
Tier II
| Name |
Last Race |
Dist |
3f Final Time (sec) |
Energy Distribution |
| Eight Belles (filly) |
4/6/08 |
8.5f |
37.2 |
66.95% |
| Proud Spell (filly) |
4/5/08 (p)
3/8/08 |
8.5f
8.5f |
36.7
37.1 |
66.45%
66.88% |
| Pyro (d) |
3/8/08 |
8.5f |
36.5 |
66.09%
|
(d) Ran like a dog in 9f Keenland Bluegrass Polytrack race
The
Tier II horses at this point make the numbers at 8.5f but need to meet
the criteria at 9f. The lower the energy distribution, the better the
chances of making 10f. Note Street Sense last year who had an energy
distribution at 8.5f of less than 66%. Pyro failed at the 9f
Bluegrass on Polytrack, and it is likely that both fillies will
not run. In any event, I would never bet a horse to win the Derby who
had not raced at 9f, so both fillies would be out anyway.
Here are the horses that haven't made it or are now confirmed out:
Big Brown, Cool Coal Man, Denis of Cork (x), Elysium Fields (out),
Giant Moon, Monba, Nikki'sgoldensteed,Tomcito and War Pass (injured);
added
(4/10/08) Tale of Ekati, Court Vision, Smooth Air, Majestic
Warrior(out), Fierce Wind (out), Big Truck, Z Fortune; promoted
(4/24/08) Monba, Z Fortune; added (4/24/08) Anak Akal, Gayego
Our Tier I horses are a very sad lot,
and we will expose the group when we assess final time and pace of the
race. It appears that the pace of the Polytrack races are so slow that
many of the horses can meet the criteria. See our earlier analyses of
contenders.
Only one horse in the Tier I group
made the numbers on the dirt track , and that was Z Fortune who
finished second to Gayego in the Arkansas Derby with a very respectable
Beyer of 102. His three furlong number, however, is a little high.
Gayego did not make the numbers, so we doubt that he wants to go
further than 9f.
Of the Tier I group, the prime
contenders at this time (way to early to be picking horses when we
don't know the weather, post positions, etc.) appear to be Colonel
John, Visionaire (trained by Michael Matz of Barbaro fame), and Z
Fortune. All three appear to be able to make the 10 furlongs.
Of the Tier II group, both the
fillies are throwouts if they get in. Pyro will either run his eyeballs
out or burst into flames. We'll see how he works at Churchill. As you
know, workouts at Churchill are critical so watch carefully and listen
to what other trainers say about horses, not their own. No trainer will
publicly say that his horse looks like crap with his owner over his
shoulder.
War Pass is injured and out of the
Derby. We wanted him in to chase Big Brown, and War Pass would have
taken money with no chance to win. Big Brown is the real unknown. If he
goes to the front unpressured, he could hold on even though his numbers
and his feet say that he doesn't want 10 furlongs. We'll see.
Don't forget to check the Doghouse
Confidential on Derby Day for the final selections and betting
strategies. Remember, you need great luck to cash in a twenty horse
field even with the best horses.
Check those workouts and keep alert to all the Derby news.
Mr. X
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